Meme Update: The Meme is already global and the rate of growth is showing signs of exponential increase. It’s made the Daypop top list, also same with Blogdex. It’s made its way onto several early-adopter sites and lists. Already the results are interesting. One thing that is clear is that there is quite a lag time in Blogspace: This applies not just to blogs, but also to aggregation sites and search sites — which don’t update nearly as often as one might think.
It seems that certain bloggers read and post much more frequently than others — we could call their blogs “hot zones,” to borrow a term from epidemiology.
The hot zone blogs are the blogs that are most interesting to read — they have their fingers on the pulse so to speak — they are where memes are born and vectored first. What’s interesting is that these hot zone blogs are not necessarily the most well-known or most popular blogs. In fact, I am surprised to see that some of the more well-known blogs have not got the Meme yet! So this is interesting — the blogs that are most on top of current trends are not necessarily those that are the most popular.
From the hot zone blogs, next we should expect to see “second wave” blogs pick up the trend, which is how it will go mainstream. The hot zones are the key though — they are the blogs we should all be reading if we are interested in tracking early-stage trends, before they have become mainstream. How do we define a “hot zone” blog? It should be a blog that picks up memes early, but also has a significant impact on the spread of the meme — a blog that results in lots of other blogs posting the meme.
Once this experimental data set gets large enough we should be able to compute, for each blog that participated, the number of downstream blogs that directly and indirectly got the meme from it. From this we should be able to compute exactly which blogs are the key “hot zones” in the process